Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Wright 45.1% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 74.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 86.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 85.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Matthews
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
1
Matthews
Wright
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
43.9% (758)
+14.4%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.7% (67)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
40.0% (5)
+10.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Matthews
Wright
Home
59.1% (528)
46.3% (406)
Away
55.1% (695)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Matthews
Wright
P1
56.2%
46.8%
P2
58.1%
42.6%
P3
56.4%
44.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:36 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:23 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |