Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Wright 41.4% (+19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 83.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 97.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 93.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.5%
91.5%
8.5%
Matthews
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Matthews
Wright
Last 6: Matthews 5-1 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
39.5% (453)
+20.3%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
42.4% (59)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
0.0% (1)
+56.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +56.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Matthews
Wright
Home
60.0% (520)
39.5% (286)
Away
59.3% (452)
40.1% (227)
By Period
Matthews
Wright
P1
60.2%
39.9%
P2
58.2%
37.1%
P3
60.4%
42.9%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:10 | Neutral | Shane Wright |