Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.8% vs 57.0%). Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Crosby 56.6% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 22-21 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 74.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.2%
Neutral zone
Crosby 55.9%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Matthews
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
21
(43 meetings)
22
21
Matthews
Crosby
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
5
6
Matthews
Crosby
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
11
6
Matthews
Crosby
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
6
9
Matthews
Crosby
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
56.2% (1,451)
+2.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
61.4% (293)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
55.3% (38)
-4.6%
On power play, Crosby has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Crosby is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Home / Away
Matthews
Crosby
Home
59.1% (528)
59.1% (939)
Away
55.1% (695)
54.7% (843)
By Period
Matthews
Crosby
P1
56.2%
54.9%
P2
58.1%
60.8%
P3
56.4%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
55.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:29 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |