Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stützle on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stützle shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Stützle 45.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Stützle leads 21-16 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Stützle 82.1%
Defensive zone
Stützle 73.6%
Neutral zone
Stützle 79.7%
Result
Tim Stützle favored at 78.4%
21.6%
78.4%
Matthews
Stützle
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
21
(37 meetings)
16
21
Matthews
Stützle
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Stützle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stützle
3
5
Matthews
Stützle
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stützle
5
6
Matthews
Stützle
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stützle
8
10
Matthews
Stützle
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stützle
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
45.1% (2,292)
+8.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
55.4% (101)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
47.7% (86)
+2.1%
On even strength, Matthews has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stützle shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Stützle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,489).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stützle
Home
56.3% (5,065)
47.7% (1,282)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
43.4% (1,197)
By Period
Matthews
Stützle
P1
55.5%
47.1%
P2
53.3%
45.4%
P3
52.8%
44.1%
OT
56.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Stützle
54.0%▲
50.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:03 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:49 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 14:21 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:50 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:51 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |