Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.2%). Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 26-15 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 51.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Matthews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
15
(41 meetings)
26
15
Matthews
Hertl
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
11
5
Matthews
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
5
Matthews
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
5
Matthews
Hertl
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
53.8% (8,268)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
59.3% (1,975)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
46.3% (806)
+3.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hertl
Home
56.3% (5,065)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Matthews
Hertl
P1
55.5%
53.6%
P2
53.3%
54.1%
P3
52.8%
55.3%
OT
56.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:51 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |