Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Hertl 54.5% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 50.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 56.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Matthews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Matthews
Hertl
Last 6: Matthews 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Matthews
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.4%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
59.8% (296)
-25.2%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
34.4% (32)
+40.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hertl
Home
54.8% (515)
54.3% (709)
Away
50.2% (534)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Matthews
Hertl
P1
54.4%
51.6%
P2
50.4%
53.6%
P3
51.8%
58.6%
OT
75.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |