Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.8% vs 55.9%). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 57.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Matthews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Matthews
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
54.1% (717)
+4.2%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
61.9% (210)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
58.1% (31)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hertl
Home
59.1% (528)
58.1% (492)
Away
55.1% (695)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Matthews
Hertl
P1
56.2%
57.1%
P2
58.1%
54.0%
P3
56.4%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |