Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 61.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Matthews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Matthews
Hertl
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Matthews
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
57.0% (718)
-3.6%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
64.9% (188)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
44.2% (77)
-2.3%
On even strength, Hertl has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hertl
Home
56.5% (703)
59.2% (463)
Away
50.0% (616)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Matthews
Hertl
P1
52.1%
56.3%
P2
54.0%
55.4%
P3
54.0%
60.5%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:51 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |