Auston Matthews vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 72.3%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 58.3%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 50.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Matthews
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Girgensons
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
2
Matthews
Girgensons
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
43.2% (146)
+16.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
50.0% (2)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
44.8% (29)
+11.5%
On even strength, Matthews has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Girgensons is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Matthews
Girgensons
Home
60.0% (520)
40.3% (72)
Away
59.3% (452)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Matthews
Girgensons
P1
60.2%
43.8%
P2
58.2%
44.6%
P3
60.4%
42.5%
Final 5 min
57.6%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |