Barclay Goodrow vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Goodrow on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Goodrow wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 44.9% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.9%
Defensive zone
Goodrow 64.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Goodrow
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Goodrow
MacKinnon
Last 6: Goodrow 3-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Goodrow
2
1
Goodrow
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Goodrow
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Goodrow
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (146)
49.2% (1,266)
+0.8%
Power Play
40.7% (27)
54.9% (193)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (79)
49.1% (55)
-18.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Goodrow is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Goodrow shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Goodrow
MacKinnon
Home
40.0% (130)
50.9% (740)
Away
45.9% (122)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Goodrow
MacKinnon
P1
48.8%
50.9%
P2
35.0%
51.8%
P3
44.8%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
42.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |