Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.6%). Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Larkin 52.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 52.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 50.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.2%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Hayton
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hayton
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Hayton
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
51.7% (878)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
58.5% (246)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
48.2% (166)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Hayton
Larkin
Home
56.9% (432)
52.4% (647)
Away
47.4% (344)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Hayton
Larkin
P1
53.1%
52.2%
P2
50.3%
53.1%
P3
55.4%
51.7%
OT
25.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |