Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 54.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Larkin 54.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 57.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 53.0%
Neutral zone
Hayton 58.6%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Hayton
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayton
Larkin
Last 6: Hayton 2-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Hayton
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
52.6% (1,117)
+0.0%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
60.7% (305)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
55.9% (177)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Hayton
Larkin
Home
53.9% (516)
54.7% (783)
Away
54.4% (504)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Hayton
Larkin
P1
55.1%
55.9%
P2
55.0%
56.1%
P3
51.7%
51.1%
OT
69.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |