Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Larkin 54.1% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 65.5%
Defensive zone
Hayton 72.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 71.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Hayton
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hayton
Larkin
Last 7: Hayton 1-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Hayton
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Hayton
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
53.6% (886)
-2.6%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
59.3% (317)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
48.7% (152)
-3.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Hayton
Larkin
Home
54.6% (639)
56.6% (700)
Away
47.2% (591)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Hayton
Larkin
P1
50.9%
55.4%
P2
52.7%
54.7%
P3
49.9%
52.7%
OT
41.7%
59.1%
Final 5 min
51.6%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |