Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 48.3% vs Larkin 52.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 72.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Hayton
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Hayton
Larkin
Last 10: Hayton 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Hayton
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
1
Hayton
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (643)
51.8% (903)
-3.7%
Power Play
55.6% (90)
56.0% (225)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (129)
47.4% (76)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Hayton is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Hayton shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Hayton
Larkin
Home
48.8% (424)
55.6% (662)
Away
47.5% (438)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Hayton
Larkin
P1
52.9%
49.9%
P2
47.3%
52.7%
P3
44.1%
53.0%
OT
70.0%
68.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
48.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 04:22 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |