Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Tavares 57.7% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 60.5%
Defensive zone
Hayton 75.6%
Neutral zone
Hayton 56.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Hayton
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Hayton
Tavares
Last 7: Hayton 3-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Hayton
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Hayton
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
57.5% (914)
-6.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
60.5% (309)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
59.1% (22)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Hayton
Tavares
Home
54.6% (639)
61.0% (661)
Away
47.2% (591)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Hayton
Tavares
P1
50.9%
58.6%
P2
52.7%
57.8%
P3
49.9%
58.4%
OT
41.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:08 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |