Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.7% vs Staal 54.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 50.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 71.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 53.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Hayton
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Hayton
Staal
Last 10: Hayton 7-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
0
Hayton
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (628)
56.2% (939)
-3.3%
Power Play
57.3% (110)
66.9% (139)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
43.5% (239)
-6.7%
On power play, Staal has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Hayton is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Hayton shoots left. Staal is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (922).
Home / Away
Hayton
Staal
Home
57.9% (413)
55.4% (663)
Away
47.4% (344)
54.7% (654)
By Period
Hayton
Staal
P1
53.4%
54.9%
P2
50.9%
55.1%
P3
55.6%
54.0%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
54.0%▬
53.0%
53.1%
Staal
50.0%▼
52.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:11 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:36 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:28 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |