Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kolesar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 48.3% vs Kolesar 43.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 60.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 90.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 74.5%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Hayton
Kolesar
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayton
Kolesar
Last 5: Hayton 4-1 Kolesar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Kolesar
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Kolesar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Kolesar
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (643)
40.6% (170)
+7.5%
Power Play
55.6% (90)
50.0% (6)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (129)
33.3% (12)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kolesar shoots right. Hayton is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Hayton shoots left. Kolesar is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Hayton
Kolesar
Home
48.8% (424)
38.0% (92)
Away
47.5% (438)
42.7% (96)
By Period
Hayton
Kolesar
P1
52.9%
41.0%
P2
47.3%
41.9%
P3
44.1%
37.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
48.1%
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 17:54 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |