Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Frost 55.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 52.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 81.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 67.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Hayton
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayton
Frost
Last 6: Hayton 2-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Hayton
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
3
Hayton
Frost
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
54.9% (701)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
60.8% (166)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
100.0% (5)
-63.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +63.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Hayton
Frost
Home
56.9% (432)
56.0% (443)
Away
47.4% (344)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Hayton
Frost
P1
53.1%
58.9%
P2
50.3%
55.3%
P3
55.4%
54.0%
OT
25.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |