Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Frost 51.1% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 68.3%
Defensive zone
Hayton 51.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Hayton
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Hayton
Frost
Last 7: Hayton 2-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Hayton
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
50.3% (825)
+2.3%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
54.9% (204)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
50.0% (4)
+3.1%
On power play, Hayton has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Hayton
Frost
Home
53.9% (516)
50.7% (489)
Away
54.4% (504)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Hayton
Frost
P1
55.1%
53.6%
P2
55.0%
47.8%
P3
51.7%
52.0%
OT
69.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 14:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |