Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.2% vs 50.3%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Frost 50.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 66.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 66.6%
Neutral zone
Hayton 54.2%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Hayton
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
15
(24 meetings)
9
15
Hayton
Frost
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
8
Hayton
Frost
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Hayton
Frost
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
49.4% (3,598)
+1.4%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
55.5% (625)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
52.8% (36)
-7.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Hayton shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Hayton
Frost
Home
52.9% (2,268)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Hayton
Frost
P1
52.0%
50.8%
P2
51.4%
51.1%
P3
49.9%
48.5%
OT
58.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 14:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |