Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Frost 46.2% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 64.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 63.7%
Neutral zone
Hayton 51.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Hayton
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Hayton
Frost
Last 7: Hayton 3-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
4
Hayton
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
45.6% (833)
+5.4%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
46.0% (100)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
55.6% (18)
-10.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
Hayton
Frost
Home
54.6% (639)
47.0% (440)
Away
47.2% (591)
44.8% (511)
By Period
Hayton
Frost
P1
50.9%
42.5%
P2
52.7%
47.9%
P3
49.9%
46.6%
OT
41.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 01:36 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 14:37 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 11:51 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 16:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |