Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.2%). Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Roy 51.9% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 67.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 67.8%
Neutral zone
Hayton 54.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Hayton
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hayton
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
1
Hayton
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Hayton
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
51.9% (547)
+0.6%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
54.1% (37)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
53.3% (92)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Hayton
Roy
Home
56.9% (432)
54.0% (328)
Away
47.4% (344)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Hayton
Roy
P1
53.1%
53.5%
P2
50.3%
51.6%
P3
55.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |