Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Cates 40.4% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 65.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 69.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Hayton
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Hayton
Cates
Last 7: Hayton 2-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Hayton
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Hayton
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
40.4% (841)
+10.6%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
42.4% (66)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
32.7% (147)
+12.3%
On power play, Hayton has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Hayton
Cates
Home
54.6% (639)
38.2% (566)
Away
47.2% (591)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Hayton
Cates
P1
50.9%
40.5%
P2
52.7%
42.4%
P3
49.9%
35.3%
OT
41.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
51.6%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 10:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 07:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |