Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Cates 43.2% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 74.8%
Defensive zone
Hayton 62.5%
Neutral zone
Hayton 69.4%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Hayton
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Hayton
Cates
Last 10: Hayton 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
8
5
Hayton
Cates
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
5
Hayton
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
6
2
Hayton
Cates
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
44.1% (2,742)
+6.7%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
43.0% (242)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
34.9% (373)
+10.3%
On power play, Hayton has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Hayton shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Hayton
Cates
Home
52.9% (2,268)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Hayton
Cates
P1
52.0%
44.5%
P2
51.4%
43.5%
P3
49.9%
41.2%
OT
58.1%
29.4%
Final 5 min
51.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:52 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |