Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayton wins 58.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 50.0% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 67.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.0%
Neutral zone
Hayton 56.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Hayton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Hayton
O'Reilly
Last 9: Hayton 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
1
Hayton
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Hayton
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hayton
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (58)
58.6% (841)
-6.9%
Power Play
45.5% (22)
59.9% (207)
-14.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayton is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (56).
Hayton shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Hayton
O'Reilly
Home
48.0% (50)
59.8% (594)
Away
53.3% (30)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Hayton
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
61.7%
P2
56.3%
56.2%
P3
41.2%
59.5%
Final 5 min
30.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
50.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 2 | 02:10 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 04:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |