Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 73.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Hayton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
55.4% (826)
-2.9%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
57.9% (221)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
50.4% (129)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Hayton
O'Reilly
Home
56.9% (432)
55.8% (579)
Away
47.4% (344)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Hayton
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
57.7%
P2
50.3%
54.8%
P3
55.4%
54.3%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:41 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |