Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Hayton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hayton
O'Reilly
Last 7: Hayton 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hayton
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
56.1% (690)
-5.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
64.6% (96)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
45.9% (109)
-0.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Hayton
O'Reilly
Home
54.6% (639)
58.3% (408)
Away
47.2% (591)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Hayton
O'Reilly
P1
50.9%
57.7%
P2
52.7%
54.8%
P3
49.9%
55.2%
OT
41.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |