Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 49.8% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 65.6%
Defensive zone
Hayton 64.9%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Hayton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Hayton
O'Reilly
Last 10: Hayton 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Hayton
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
1
Hayton
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (318)
55.0% (1,084)
-4.7%
Power Play
50.7% (67)
56.8% (303)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (33)
40.3% (149)
+2.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayton is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Hayton shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Hayton
O'Reilly
Home
47.4% (171)
54.8% (759)
Away
51.4% (247)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Hayton
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
55.3%
P2
50.0%
51.9%
P3
49.0%
54.2%
OT
75.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
58.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
49.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |