Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coleman wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.9% vs Duchene 54.9% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.5%
Defensive zone
Coleman 85.0%
Neutral zone
Coleman 63.8%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Coleman
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Coleman
Duchene
Last 6: Coleman 2-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Coleman
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Coleman
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coleman
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (145)
55.4% (1,013)
-9.9%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
56.3% (192)
-23.0%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (108)
41.2% (17)
-4.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Coleman is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (137).
Coleman shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Coleman
Duchene
Home
49.6% (129)
56.2% (642)
Away
33.8% (133)
54.3% (580)
By Period
Coleman
Duchene
P1
39.5%
56.2%
P2
40.2%
56.5%
P3
45.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
41.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2019 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |