Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Coleman on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coleman wins 37.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.9% vs Dowd 51.6% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 61.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 53.0%
Neutral zone
Coleman 50.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Coleman
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Coleman
Dowd
Last 6: Coleman 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
2
1
Coleman
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Coleman
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coleman
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (145)
51.2% (381)
-5.7%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
100.0% (2)
-66.7%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (108)
53.9% (89)
-16.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coleman is 37.6% vs right-shot opponents (125).
Coleman shoots left. Dowd is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Coleman
Dowd
Home
49.6% (129)
54.6% (218)
Away
33.8% (133)
49.6% (254)
By Period
Coleman
Dowd
P1
39.5%
50.6%
P2
40.2%
55.1%
P3
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
41.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2019 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 8, 2019 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |