Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coleman on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coleman wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coleman 59.2%
Defensive zone
Coleman 76.9%
Neutral zone
Coleman 54.9%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Coleman
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Coleman
Dowd
Last 7: Coleman 3-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
2
1
Coleman
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Coleman
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coleman
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (1,060)
52.4% (6,009)
-7.1%
Power Play
34.1% (41)
56.1% (164)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (321)
44.1% (1,635)
-8.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coleman is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Coleman shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Coleman
Dowd
Home
44.5% (663)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
41.4% (759)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Coleman
Dowd
P1
42.4%
51.7%
P2
44.6%
50.4%
P3
41.7%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
42.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
42.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2021 | OT | 01:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 8, 2019 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 8, 2019 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |