Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Coleman wins 37.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 47.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coleman 57.5%
Defensive zone
Coleman 50.8%
Neutral zone
Coleman 54.3%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Coleman
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Coleman
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Coleman
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (61)
55.0% (1,084)
-7.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
56.8% (303)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
40.3% (149)
-40.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coleman is 37.8% vs left-shot opponents (45).
Coleman shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Coleman
O'Reilly
Home
41.0% (39)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.0% (30)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Coleman
O'Reilly
P1
33.3%
55.3%
P2
52.6%
51.9%
P3
52.2%
54.2%
Final 5 min
35.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
44.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |