Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 57.3%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 91.9%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 76.0%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Lizotte
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Lizotte
Cates
Last 5: Lizotte 5-0 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
45.4% (712)
+7.5%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
42.2% (102)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
44.7% (47)
-1.6%
On power play, Cates has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Cates
Home
44.2% (242)
46.3% (423)
Away
56.0% (234)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Lizotte
Cates
P1
49.6%
46.3%
P2
46.9%
47.1%
P3
52.6%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 11:25 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |