Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.8% vs Cates 45.1% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 55.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 51.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Lizotte
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lizotte
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Lizotte
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (299)
46.7% (912)
+6.8%
Power Play
0.0% (4)
33.9% (56)
-33.9%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (44)
35.0% (137)
+3.6%
On power play, Cates has a +33.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lizotte is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (207).
Lizotte shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Cates
Home
52.0% (198)
46.1% (521)
Away
49.7% (149)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Lizotte
Cates
P1
50.0%
48.0%
P2
50.9%
42.3%
P3
52.2%
44.3%
OT
0.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
60.9%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:38 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |