Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Cates 43.2% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Lizotte leads 14-2 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Lizotte 88.1%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 93.6%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 88.6%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
Lizotte
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
2
(16 meetings)
14
2
Lizotte
Cates
Last 10: Lizotte 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
5
1
Lizotte
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
5
1
Lizotte
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
4
0
Lizotte
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
44.1% (2,742)
+7.5%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
43.0% (242)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
34.9% (373)
+7.4%
On even strength, Lizotte has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Cates
Home
49.5% (1,840)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Lizotte
Cates
P1
48.0%
44.5%
P2
52.3%
43.5%
P3
50.5%
41.2%
OT
75.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.2%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 11:25 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:38 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:22 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:40 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |