Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.1%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 59.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Lizotte
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
56.1% (690)
-3.6%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
64.6% (96)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
45.9% (109)
-4.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Home
51.4% (383)
58.3% (408)
Away
50.9% (424)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Lizotte
O'Reilly
P1
48.8%
57.7%
P2
51.0%
54.8%
P3
53.5%
55.2%
Final 5 min
48.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |