Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Lizotte 56.0%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 68.9%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 63.8%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lizotte 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
Lizotte
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Lizotte
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
4
2
Lizotte
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
56.2% (15,260)
-4.6%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
58.8% (3,445)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (1,840)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Lizotte
O'Reilly
P1
48.0%
55.6%
P2
52.3%
57.0%
P3
50.5%
55.1%
OT
75.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
50.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 04:00 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |