Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +21.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wheeler wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 43.1% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-21.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wheeler 62.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.7%
Neutral zone
Wheeler 56.1%
Result
Blake Wheeler favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Wheeler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Wheeler
O'Reilly
Last 8: Wheeler 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
2
0
Wheeler
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Wheeler
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Wheeler
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
32.4% (74)
57.1% (1,367)
-24.7%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
59.4% (286)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
52.5% (257)
-32.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Wheeler is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Wheeler shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Wheeler
O'Reilly
Home
30.9% (55)
59.2% (936)
Away
42.4% (33)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Wheeler
O'Reilly
P1
43.6%
57.3%
P2
26.7%
57.5%
P3
27.8%
55.0%
OT
100.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
45.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
35.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 1 | 09:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 15:34 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |