Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 45.3% vs McDavid 47.8% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 87.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Groulx
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Groulx
McDavid
Last 5: Groulx 4-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Groulx
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
3
0
Groulx
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (371)
47.7% (8,358)
-1.6%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
52.0% (371)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
36.9% (84)
43.4% (279)
-6.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Groulx is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Groulx shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Groulx
McDavid
Home
49.8% (241)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
38.3% (222)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Groulx
McDavid
P1
45.3%
46.5%
P2
44.8%
48.7%
P3
42.9%
48.3%
OT
50.0%
40.9%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
48.0%▲
42.5%
44.3%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |