Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 45.6% vs McDavid 51.0% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 90.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 62.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 69.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Groulx
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Groulx
McDavid
Last 5: Groulx 4-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Groulx
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
3
0
Groulx
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (222)
51.6% (803)
-7.9%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
50.0% (40)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (48)
36.4% (22)
+7.4%
On power play, Groulx has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Groulx is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Groulx shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Groulx
McDavid
Home
49.6% (129)
51.8% (415)
Away
39.0% (146)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Groulx
McDavid
P1
43.6%
47.5%
P2
45.0%
51.6%
P3
43.4%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
48.0%▲
42.5%
44.0%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |