Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 49 meetings). Horvat wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs McDavid 47.8% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 90-78 in 168 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 60.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 72.0%
Neutral zone
Horvat 70.4%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
Horvat
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
90
-
78
(168 meetings)
90
78
Horvat
McDavid
Last 10: Horvat 8-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
26
43
Horvat
McDavid
69 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
35
14
Horvat
McDavid
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
29
21
Horvat
McDavid
50 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,606)
47.7% (8,358)
+6.2%
Power Play
61.0% (2,699)
52.0% (371)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,494)
43.4% (279)
+3.7%
On power play, Horvat has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,714).
Horvat shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Horvat
McDavid
Home
56.0% (8,355)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Horvat
McDavid
P1
54.1%
46.5%
P2
54.4%
48.7%
P3
55.0%
48.3%
OT
49.6%
40.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 10:13 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 14:17 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |