Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Ryan 54.6% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 86.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 75.3%
Neutral zone
Horvat 51.8%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Horvat
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Horvat
Ryan
Last 6: Horvat 3-3 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Ryan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
2
Horvat
Ryan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Horvat
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
60.8% (263)
-7.3%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
100.0% (1)
-43.7%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
46.2% (145)
+5.1%
On power play, Ryan has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Horvat is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (531).
Horvat shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Horvat
Ryan
Home
54.2% (714)
56.7% (201)
Away
53.6% (705)
54.8% (208)
By Period
Horvat
Ryan
P1
53.5%
56.7%
P2
56.3%
56.8%
P3
53.5%
53.7%
Final 5 min
52.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |