Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 84.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 78.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 51.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Horvat
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Horvat
Kastelic
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
0
Horvat
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
5
Horvat
Kastelic
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
61.2% (340)
-5.9%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
83.3% (6)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
56.0% (141)
-9.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Horvat is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (413).
Horvat shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Horvat
Kastelic
Home
58.2% (469)
60.9% (233)
Away
54.0% (544)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Horvat
Kastelic
P1
59.6%
58.6%
P2
53.1%
58.7%
P3
55.5%
63.1%
OT
55.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
59.6%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:16 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:18 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:14 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |