Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.0% vs 55.4%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 53.1%
Defensive zone
Horvat 50.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.7%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Horvat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
O'Reilly
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
55.4% (826)
-0.1%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
57.9% (221)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
50.4% (129)
-3.9%
On power play, Horvat has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horvat is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (600).
Horvat shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Horvat
O'Reilly
Home
58.2% (469)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.0% (544)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Horvat
O'Reilly
P1
59.6%
57.7%
P2
53.1%
54.8%
P3
55.5%
54.3%
OT
55.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.6%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |