Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Jenner wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 66.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
Jenner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Jenner
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Jenner
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (775)
45.5% (1,190)
+9.0%
Power Play
59.1% (198)
56.4% (94)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (140)
40.0% (30)
+6.4%
On even strength, Jenner has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jenner is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Jenner shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Jenner
MacKinnon
Home
52.9% (512)
47.8% (670)
Away
55.4% (601)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Jenner
MacKinnon
P1
55.0%
45.3%
P2
54.5%
48.5%
P3
53.6%
45.0%
OT
52.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |