Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 50.8% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.0%
Defensive zone
Jenner 53.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Jenner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (163)
49.2% (1,266)
+1.1%
Power Play
52.0% (25)
54.9% (193)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
49.1% (55)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jenner is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Jenner shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Jenner
MacKinnon
Home
45.7% (81)
50.9% (740)
Away
54.8% (124)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Jenner
MacKinnon
P1
46.6%
50.9%
P2
58.3%
51.8%
P3
50.0%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
43.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |