Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Sturm 55.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 72.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 66.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Jenner
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Jenner
Sturm
Last 7: Jenner 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
0
Jenner
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Jenner
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Jenner
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
56.1% (716)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
67.7% (31)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
51.1% (133)
-1.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Jenner shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Jenner
Sturm
Home
56.7% (693)
55.6% (412)
Away
52.7% (693)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Jenner
Sturm
P1
57.1%
59.6%
P2
54.1%
52.0%
P3
53.0%
55.5%
OT
61.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | OT | 02:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:57 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 05:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |