Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.9%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.4%
Defensive zone
Jenner 65.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Jenner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Jenner
O'Reilly
Last 9: Jenner 5-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Jenner
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (775)
55.0% (1,084)
-0.5%
Power Play
59.1% (198)
56.8% (303)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (140)
40.3% (149)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jenner is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Jenner shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Jenner
O'Reilly
Home
52.9% (512)
54.8% (759)
Away
55.4% (601)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Jenner
O'Reilly
P1
55.0%
55.3%
P2
54.5%
51.9%
P3
53.6%
54.2%
OT
52.6%
64.7%
Final 5 min
53.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:49 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |