Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 63.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Jenner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Jenner
O'Reilly
Last 10: Jenner 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
0
Jenner
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
1
Jenner
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
56.1% (690)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
64.6% (96)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
45.9% (109)
+3.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Jenner shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Jenner
O'Reilly
Home
56.7% (693)
58.3% (408)
Away
52.7% (693)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Jenner
O'Reilly
P1
57.1%
57.7%
P2
54.1%
54.8%
P3
53.0%
55.2%
OT
61.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 02:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |