Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Marchand on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marchand wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 46.3% vs Tavares 54.2% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 85.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 81.1%
18.9%
81.1%
Marchand
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Marchand
Tavares
Last 7: Marchand 5-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchand
3
1
Marchand
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marchand
2
1
Marchand
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
40.5% (79)
53.0% (1,201)
-12.5%
Power Play
63.2% (19)
61.5% (262)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
53.8% (65)
-39.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +39.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Marchand is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Marchand shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Marchand
Tavares
Home
44.3% (61)
57.5% (762)
Away
40.9% (44)
51.4% (766)
By Period
Marchand
Tavares
P1
51.8%
54.5%
P2
36.0%
53.2%
P3
30.4%
55.5%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
42.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 14:18 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |